Report Card
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Editorial assessment by PCSN. Statistics block from site_stats.json (national figures reviewed 2026-06-12); grade text corrected October 1, 2026.
Federal wildfire capacity is being reorganized and reduced during the 2026 fire season. The Forest Service is moving its headquarters to Salt Lake City, closing all 9 regional offices and 57 of 77 research facilities, and lost about 5,000 or more staff in 2025 (secondary reporting), including at least 1,800 fire-qualified employees; it later asked about 1,400 who had taken deferred resignation to come back. Congress did not fund the proposed U.S. Wildland Fire Service as a separate agency. Treatment acreage fell in 2025, by roughly 11% to 35% depending on how acres are counted. Lake Powell was at about 22% of live capacity at the end of August 2026. Insurance markets are under stress: California’s FAIR Plan had about 697,000 policies in force in June 2026, and Nevada now allows insurers to exclude wildfire coverage entirely, with no backstop.
The few bright spots are at the state level. California’s governor’s office reports the state fire-protection budget grew from about $2 billion to $3.8 billion since 2019; prescribed burning has nearly doubled since 2021, and the state enacted a wildfire-insurance package in October 2025. Oregon established a Large Wildfire Fund. In PCSN’s editorial view, states cannot replace federal research and fire capacity that took decades to build.
By the national figures in site_stats.json, 29,023 fires have burned 2.35 million acres this year. In spring 2026, western snowpack was at record lows and melt came weeks early; that water-year record is not a forecast for the coming winter.
Editorial assessment. The letter grades are PCSN’s opinion. A written grading rubric has not yet been published. Factual statements in the cards below were checked against PCSN’s October 2026 policy claim audit where that audit covers them.
Corrected October 1, 2026: fuels-treatment decline and per-acre costs; smoke mortality context; OSHA heat program (a revised National Emphasis Program was issued April 10, 2026); Colorado River status; year of California’s insurance package (2025, not 2026); description of EO 14112; the Washington treatment comparison; PurpleAir sensor count; SNOTEL station count; the Firewatch model-skill claim.
Federal Fuels Treatment
Forest Service hazardous-fuels treatment fell in 2025, but the size of the drop depends on how acres are counted: about 1.2 million fewer acres (−32%) by calendar year in a PCSN tally of USFS FACTS data, about 1.5 million fewer (~35%) in a Center for Western Priorities analysis, and about 11% by federal fiscal year. Prescribed burning roughly halved (FY2024 to FY2025). The FY2027 USWFS budget targets fuels work on an estimated 4.7M acres. (A “6.6M acres in FY2024” comparison shown here earlier has been withdrawn: its source and metric could not be confirmed, and it is not the same measure as the PCSN FACTS tally.) Per-acre costs vary widely: USFS FACTS averages are about $360/acre for prescribed fire and $830/acre for mechanical treatment (Resources for the Future WP 25-03), and suppression costs per acre vary by orders of magnitude between fires.
USFS Restructuring & Capacity
The most sweeping USFS reorganization in 121 years: HQ moving to Salt Lake City, all 9 regional offices closing, replaced by 6 service centers and 15 state offices. About 5,000 or more staff lost in 2025 (secondary reporting; not yet checked against OPM data), including at least 1,800 fire-qualified (red-card) employees. DOGE cuts hit 3,400 USFS staff; only 28 were upheld after court challenges. Administration had to recall firefighters it had just fired. 57 of 77 research facilities closing. Congress did not fund the ~$6.5B USWFS request; FY2026 wildfire funding went through existing USFS and DOI accounts.
Colorado River & Water Policy
Lake Powell held about 5.14 million acre-feet at the end of August 2026, about 22% of live capacity (USBR). April–July 2026 inflow forecasts were among the lowest on record (13% of average in the May forecast). Powell stayed above the 3,490 ft minimum power pool through August after release cuts (7.48 to 6.0 million acre-feet) and Flaming Gorge releases. The basin states did not reach consensus on long-term operations; Reclamation issued a Record of Decision on August 21, 2026 setting 2027–2028 operating guidelines, and the 2007 Interim Guidelines expire at the end of 2026. 22 tribal nations in the basin hold recognized water rights.
Smoke & Air Quality Preparedness
An estimated 1,500–2,500 excess deaths per year in the western US from wildfire smoke (Burke et al. 2021); newer national estimates, which count long-term exposure across the contiguous US, are far higher (for example about 24,000 per year in Zhang et al. 2026, Science Advances, and about 40,000 per year in Qiu et al. 2025, Nature; estimates depend on whether long-term exposure is counted). OSHA’s 2022 heat National Emphasis Program expired April 8, 2026; a revised NEP was issued April 10, 2026. A federal heat-illness standard is still not final, and neither covers wildfire smoke. No federal wildfire smoke standard exists. Only CA, OR, and WA have permanent enforceable worker smoke rules; the other 8 corridor states have no state smoke rule. Most rural fire-prone counties have zero clean air shelters. No state integrates HRRR-Smoke into emergency management.
Federal Research
57 of 77 USFS research facilities closing. Five regional stations consolidated into Fort Collins, CO. 137 of 633 STEM Ph.D.s left in 2025. No research facility will remain in Alaska (9M hectares of national forest). Labs closing in Bozeman MT, Reno NV, and across Utah. The institutional knowledge being destroyed took decades to build and cannot be reconstituted.
Insurance Market Stability
The CA FAIR Plan, the insurer of last resort, had about 697,000 policies in force in June 2026, up about 157% since September 2022 (FAIR Plan figures, secondary report). Nevada A.B. 376 (Jan 1, 2026) allows insurers to exclude wildfire entirely; NV has no FAIR Plan or backstop. In October 2025 California enacted a wildfire-insurance package including SB 429, which funds development of the nation’s first public wildfire catastrophe model. More than $23.7B in LA wildfire claims had been paid as of March 3, 2026 (CA Department of Insurance).
Tribal Co-Management
Executive Order 14236 (March 14, 2025) revoked EO 14112, which directed reforms to federal funding and support for Tribal Nations. Co-stewardship rests mainly on Joint Secretarial Order 3403 (2021), whose current status was not re-checked for this correction. The BLM Public Lands Rule was rescinded (final rule published May 12, 2026). GAO found workforce cuts are hampering DOI’s ability to finalize co-stewardship agreements. H.R. 3444 proposes $50M for FY2026–2030 but hasn’t moved. Tribes steward 4.5M acres in the PNW with proven prescribed fire expertise.
State Treatment Pace
Federal decline partially offset by states. California treating ~200K acres/year in prescribed burns (doubled since 2021), $70M new grant funding announced May 7. Oregon established Large Wildfire Fund (HB 3940). In Washington, DNR’s 20-year Forest Health Strategic Plan (2017–2037) targets 1.25M acres of treatment across all ownerships in eastern WA; DNR reports roughly 20–29% of that combined need achieved to date.
Emergency Preparedness (BRIC)
FEMA announced $1 billion in BRIC funding March 25, 2026. Application window closed July 23, 2026. $757M national competition + $81M building code + $162M tribal/state set-aside. 75% federal / 25% match. But funding is volatile — program was previously paused and administration has shown hostility.
Cross-Border Coordination
No integrated US-Canada fire prediction system. BC burned 2.8M hectares in 2023. WA and BC share fire-weather corridors. Alaska losing all USFS research presence despite sharing the boreal fire regime with Yukon/BC.
Data & Monitoring Infrastructure
About 900 SNOTEL stations, gridMET climate, MTBS severity, about 10,700 PurpleAir sensors checked (October 1, 2026 pull), plus EPA regulatory monitors. Firewatch demonstrates public data CAN be fused into a fire-risk model; its predictive skill is being re-validated (see the Scorecard). CA SB 429 creates nation’s first public wildfire catastrophe model. But USFS research closures threaten the science that feeds these systems.
FEMA announces $1B BRIC funding. Application window opens (closes July 23).
USDA orders Forest Service’s most sweeping reorganization in 121 years. All 9 regional offices closing.
Forest Service confirms it will proceed with reorganization without Congressional approval.
Washington declares 4th consecutive statewide drought emergency. OSHA’s 2022 heat National Emphasis Program expires.
OSHA issues a revised heat National Emphasis Program (an enforcement program, not a standard; it does not cover smoke).
Bureau of Reclamation cuts Lake Powell releases from 7.48M to 6.0M acre-feet/year. Flaming Gorge emergency release authorized.
USWFS chief Brian Fennessy shares priorities — but Congress has zeroed out funding for the agency he leads.
NPR reports USFS vegetation treatment dropped 1.5M acres from 2024. Prescribed burning roughly halved.
California announces $70M in new wildfire prevention grants. State fire budget at $3.8B — nearly doubled.
Lake Powell forecast to receive 13% of normal April–July inflow — lowest on record. Hydropower was at risk by September; after release cuts Powell stayed above minimum power pool through August.
BLM Public Lands Rule rescission published as a final rule.
Reclamation issues a Record of Decision setting 2027–2028 Colorado River operating guidelines.
Halt the USFS research station closures. 57 facilities cannot be reconstituted once institutional knowledge walks out the door.
Fund the USWFS or restore USFS fire capacity. Congress zeroed out $6.5B; the agency exists on paper with no budget.
Expand prescribed burning in Oregon’s Southern Cascades during the fall and spring burn windows before the 2027 season.
FY2026 BRIC window closed July 23. Begin FY2027 preparation now — Firewatch risk data can support evidence-based applications.
Build a durable basin-wide Colorado River agreement to follow the 2027–2028 operating guidelines; the 2007 Interim Guidelines expire at the end of 2026.
Fund tribal co-management: restore federal tribal funding reforms and affirm co-stewardship agreements under Joint Secretarial Order 3403.
Establish wildfire insurance backstops in states without FAIR Plans. Nevada’s new exclusion law leaves homeowners exposed.
Pass a federal wildfire smoke worker protection standard. OSHA’s revised heat National Emphasis Program (April 2026) is an enforcement program, not a standard, and does not cover smoke.
Sources
USFS restructuring: Federal News Network, OPB, Breakthrough Institute, GovExec. Staffing: GearJunkie (5,874 public lands firings), High Country News, PBS News, Rocky Mountain PBS. Budget: Taxpayers for Common Sense, Senate Appropriations Committee. BRIC: FEMA NOFO, Grants.gov. Insurance: KQED, CA DOI, Nevada Current, Fire Adapted Colorado, Headwaters Economics. Treatment: NPR (May 4, 2026), CAL FIRE, Gov. Newsom press releases. Tribal: Native News Online, GAO/E&E News, ABA. Smoke: OSHA rulemaking docket, Cal/OSHA, Oregon OSHA, KUNR. Colorado River: Colorado Sun, Sierra Club, DU Water Law Review, Utah Public Radio. Research: Salt Lake Tribune, Science/AAAS, OPB, KUNC, Center for Western Priorities. State budgets: Oregon Capital Chronicle, WA Ecology, KTVZ. Corrections (Oct 1, 2026): OSHA directive CPL 03-00-024 (osha.gov/enforcement/directives/nep); USBR Glen Canyon Dam status and Post-2026 Operations; Executive Order 14236 (90 FR 13037); BLM final rule (Federal Register, May 12, 2026); CA Department of Insurance; WA DNR 20-Year Forest Health Strategic Plan; Resources for the Future WP 25-03; Zhang et al. 2026 (Science Advances); Qiu et al. 2025 (Nature). Original text compiled through May 13, 2026; corrected October 1, 2026 against PCSN’s policy claim audit. Claims not covered by that audit were not re-verified.