Air Quality & Smoke

Smoke Kills More People Than Fire

Wildfire smoke is the fastest-growing air quality crisis in the western United States.

Smoke kills more people than fire does. An estimated 1,500–2,500 people die each year from wildfire smoke exposure in the western US (Burke et al. 2021, PNAS),more than die in the fires themselves. In 2020 alone, the Labor Day fires killed 11 people directly but wildfire smoke contributed to an estimated 6,300–8,800 excess deaths nationwide (O’Dell et al. 2023, GeoHealth).

Wildfire PM2.5 is not ordinary air pollution. Research shows it is up to 10x more harmful to respiratory health per microgram than equivalent PM2.5 from traffic or industry (Aguilera et al. 2021, Nature Communications). The economic toll: $11–20 billion per year in health costs (Fann et al. 2018, EPA).

2,500

Excess deaths/year

Western US, wildfire smoke

10x

More toxic than traffic PM2.5

Aguilera et al. 2021

$20B

Annual health costs

EPA estimate

12K+

PurpleAir sensors

Real-time western corridor

Live AQI from PurpleAir. Toggle "2026 Smoke Forecast" for projected exposure from Firewatch risk zones.

EPA Air Quality Index (AQI)

0–50

Good

51–100

Moderate

101–150

USG

151–200

Unhealthy

201–300

Very Unhealthy

301+

Hazardous

USG = Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups. During major events AQI can exceed 500. Portland hit 500+ during the 2020 Labor Day fires.

Major Smoke Events (2017–2023)Peak AQI · Western corridor

Worst Smoke-Impacted Counties2015–2025 · % days exceeding USG threshold

EPA AQS annual PM2.5 summaries (parameter 88101), ~700 monitors, 11 western states. PM2.5 > 35.5 μg/m³.

Smoke Forecast Model

The Smoke Impactlayer on the dashboard map shows forecasted PM2.5 exposure from a calibrated empirical model: 315,000 daily EPA PM2.5 observations (Jun–Oct 2017–2024) paired with 800 MTBS fire centroids by date and distance. Power law transfer function (R² = 0.19, RMSE = 24.1 μg/m³).

Real-Time Monitoring

Current AQI monitored by 12,000+ PurpleAir citizen science sensors across the western corridor. 20x the density of the federal network, filling critical gaps in rural fire-prone communities. PM2.5 values use the EPA 2021 correction equation.

2026 Smoke Risk OutlookUpdated May 12, 2026

As of early May, 15 uncontained large fires burn across the western corridor with wildfire starts increasing (NIFC). Snowpack at record lows across 7 of 11 states. El Niño developing with 80% probability by summer, 25% chance of Super El Niño. Key smoke risk factors:

Oregon: Zero snowpack. Willamette and Rogue valleys are inversion-prone. Portland’s 2020 AQI 500+ is the template.

California: Central Valley inversions trap Sierra fire smoke. Sacramento and Bay Area chronically exposed.

Colorado/Utah: SWE at 0–20%. Front Range and Wasatch communities face expanding WUI fire risk.

Idaho: 43–48% smoke days in worst counties. Boise unhealthy air every year since 2017.

Policy Failures

Clean air shelters: Most rural fire-prone counties have zero. EPA recommends MERV-13; most buildings have MERV-8.

Worker protections: Only CA and WA have enforceable smoke rules. 9 states have nothing.

No forecasting mandate: HRRR-Smoke exists but isn’t integrated into emergency management. PurpleAir fills the gap.

Insurance ignores smoke: No insurer accounts for cumulative smoke burden despite 2–5% property value impacts.

Real-time AQI: PurpleAir(12,000+ sensors, EPA-corrected). Historical PM2.5: EPA AQS (2015–2025, 11 states, ~700 monitors). Health: Burke et al. 2021, O’Dell et al. 2023, Aguilera et al. 2021, Fann et al. 2018. Smoke model: 315K daily observations × 800 MTBS fires, R²=0.19.