Air Quality
Smoke Kills More People Than Fire
Wildfire smoke is the fastest-growing air quality crisis in the western United States.
Fire gets the headlines. Smoke does the killing. An estimated 1,500–2,500 people die each year from wildfire smoke exposure in the western US (Burke et al. 2021, PNAS) — more than die in the fires themselves. In 2020 alone, the Labor Day fires killed 11 people directly but wildfire smoke contributed to an estimated 6,300–8,800 excess deaths nationwide (O'Dell et al. 2023, GeoHealth).
Wildfire PM2.5 is not ordinary air pollution. Research shows it is up to 10x more harmful to respiratory health per microgram than equivalent PM2.5 from traffic or industry (Aguilera et al. 2021, Nature Communications). The particles carry unique chemical signatures — partially combusted organic compounds, heavy metals from soil, and ultrafine particles that penetrate deep into lung tissue.
The economic toll: $11–20 billion per year in health costs (Fann et al. 2018, EPA), with additional billions in lost productivity, tourism cancellations, and property value declines in chronically smoke-impacted communities.
Live AQI from PurpleAir. Toggle "2026 Smoke Forecast" to see projected smoke exposure from Firewatch fire risk zones.
EPA Air Quality Index (AQI)
USG = Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups. During major events AQI can exceed 500. Portland hit 500+ during the 2020 Labor Day fires.
Major Smoke Events (2017–2023)
Worst Smoke-Impacted Counties (2015–2025)
% of EPA-monitored days exceeding USG threshold (PM2.5 > 35.5 μg/m³).
Source: EPA AQS annual PM2.5 summaries (parameter 88101), ~700 monitors, 11 western states.
2026 Smoke Forecast Model
The Smoke Impact layer on the dashboard map shows forecasted PM2.5 exposure from a calibrated empirical model: 315,000 daily EPA PM2.5 observations (Jun–Oct 2017–2024) paired with 800 MTBS fire centroids by date and distance. Power law transfer function (R² = 0.19, RMSE = 24.1 μg/m³). Toggle it on the map to see where smoke will concentrate.
Real-Time Air Quality
Current AQI is monitored by 11,000+ PurpleAir citizen science sensors across the western corridor. Toggle the Air Quality layer on the dashboard map for live readings. PM2.5 values use the EPA 2021 correction equation.
PurpleAir provides 20x the sensor density of the federal network, filling critical gaps in rural fire-prone communities. Data courtesy of PurpleAir.
2026 Smoke Risk Outlook
The 2026 fire season is already unprecedented. As of April 4, 1.6 million acres have burned nationally — more than double the 10-year average (NIFC). Snowpack is at record lows across 7 of 11 western states. A potential super El Niño is developing (NOAA CPC: 62% by summer, 33% strong by fall), amplifying fire risk through warmer/drier conditions. Key smoke risk factors:
- Oregon: zero snowpack — Willamette and Rogue valleys are inversion-prone. Portland's 2020 AQI 500+ is the template.
- California: 6% SWE — Central Valley inversions trap Sierra fire smoke. Sacramento and Bay Area chronically exposed.
- Colorado/Utah: 0–12% SWE — Front Range and Wasatch communities face expanding WUI fire risk.
- Idaho: 43–48% smoke days — Nez Perce, Kootenai, Latah counties. Boise unhealthy air every year since 2017.
- Suppression gutted — ~3,400 USFS employees lost, ~1,400 red-card holders. Escaped fires burn bigger, produce more smoke.
Policy Failures
- Clean air shelters — Most rural fire-prone counties have zero. EPA recommends MERV-13; most buildings have MERV-8.
- Worker protections — Only CA and WA have enforceable smoke rules. 9 states have nothing.
- No smoke forecasting mandate — HRRR-Smoke exists but isn't integrated into emergency management. PurpleAir fills the gap.
- Insurance ignores smoke — No insurer accounts for cumulative smoke burden despite 2–5% property value impacts.
Real-time AQI: PurpleAir(11,000+ sensors, EPA-corrected). Historical PM2.5: EPA AQS (2015–2025, 11 states, ~700 monitors). Health: Burke et al. 2021, O'Dell et al. 2023, Aguilera et al. 2021, Fann et al. 2018. Smoke model: 315K daily observations × 800 MTBS fires, R²=0.19.