Fire Season Begins on the Worst Pre-Season Conditions in the Modern Measurement Record

The western fire corridor enters 2026 under the worst pre-season conditions in the modern measurement record. 65% of SNOTEL stations. 1,012 of 1,570, recorded all-time low snowpack on April 1. 8 states set new record lows; AZ, CO, ID, NV, NM, OR, UT, WY all hit SNOTEL-era lows simultaneously. Snowpack has collapsed entirely across the corridor: all 11 western states reached 0.0" median SWE by the end of May, snow is functionally gone everywhere except trace amounts in Colorado. Melt-out arrived weeks ahead of schedule across the West, with many stations recording their earliest snow-free date on record. Oregon has 62 of 73 water supply forecast points at or near historic lows.

January through March was the driest on record for the continental United States. 60.9% of the Lower 48 is now in drought. As of June 24, 2026, the corridor has 77 active fires (264,558 ac). The largest active concern is Iron at 31,314 acres in Juab County, UT, 9% contained. Nationally, 2.35 million acres have burned across 29,023 fires:more than double the same period in 2025 and exceeding the 10-year average before fire season officially began. 18 uncontained large fires remain across 8 states. The Southern Area sits at Preparedness Level 4; the national system is at PL2. AccuWeather forecasts 5.5–8 million acres for the full year.

El Niño Watch in effect. ONI reached +0.5°C in spring. Probability climbs to 80% by June–August and 88–94% by fall, with a 25% chance of a Super El Niño (≥+2.0°C). Water systems are already breaking: Lake Powell is forecast to receive only 13% of usual inflows and hydropower generation could halt by September; Lake Mead sits at 1054.89 ft, roughly 30% of capacity; Wyoming's North Platte runoff forecast is 17% of average. Suppression capacity has degraded entering this season: only 11,300 firefighters are on board (vs 11,900 the prior year) after 4,200 departures through the paid leave program and 600 through early retirement. ~6,000 USFS employees were lost overall, 57 research facilities are closing, and the proposed FY2026 budget cuts staffing by 26%. More than 5,000 personnel are currently assigned to fire incidents and over 12,000 PurpleAir sensors monitor western air quality.