As of October 2, 2026: 157 active WFIGS incidents, 2.6M acres in the 11-state corridor

Season analysis · Aug. 2026The season the pre-season indicators pointed to arrived. As of mid-August 2026, three Oregon fires, BIG GRASS (Malheur County), CROSSWHITE (Wheeler County), and Coleman Creek (Harney County), had each burned beyond a quarter-million acres; Oregon had passed two million acres statewide; and the fires that reached Spokane’s city limits destroyed 700+ structures and forced 67,000 evacuations. For current status, see the corridor count above and the map. 65% of SNOTEL stations. 1,012 of 1,570, recorded all-time low snowpack on April 1. 8 states set new record lows; AZ, CO, ID, NV, NM, OR, UT, WY all hit SNOTEL-era lows simultaneously. In water year 2026, all 11 western states reached 0.0" median SWE by the end of May, with only trace amounts left in Colorado. Melt-out arrived weeks ahead of schedule across the West, with many stations recording their earliest snow-free date on record. Oregon has 62 of 73 water supply forecast points at or near historic lows.

January through March was the driest on record for the continental United States. 60.9% of the Lower 48 is now in drought. As of October 2, 2026, the corridor has 157 active WFIGS incidents, including prescribed burns (2,555,101 ac). The largest active concern is Rowe Creek Complex at 373,929 acres in Wheeler County, OR, 99% contained. Nationally, as of the last manual review (2026-06-12), 2.35 million acres had burned across 29,023 fires. 18 uncontained large fires were burning nationally and the national system was at Preparedness Level 2 (of 5). AccuWeather forecasts 5.5–8 million acres for the full year.

El Niño is established. The weekly Niño 3.4 index reached +0.5°C in June and forecast probabilities are effectively 80% through fall, with roughly half of forecast models indicating a very strong event (≥+2.0°C) at the autumn peak. Water systems are already breaking: Lake Powell is forecast to receive only 13% of usual inflows and hydropower generation could halt by September; Lake Mead sits at 1054.89 ft, roughly 30% of capacity; Wyoming's North Platte runoff forecast is 17% of average. Suppression capacity entered the season degraded: only 11,300 firefighters are on board (vs 11,900 the prior year) after 4,200 departures through the paid leave program and 600 through early retirement. ~6,000 USFS employees were lost overall, 57 research facilities are closing, and the proposed FY2026 budget cuts staffing by 26%. More than 5,000 personnel are currently assigned to fire incidents and over 10,700 PurpleAir sensors monitor western air quality.