No Longer One Fire’s Story: Megafires Multiply as the Northwest Endures Its Worst Season in Three Decades

The season the pre-season data predicted has arrived, and it is no longer any single fire’s story. Three Oregon megafires, BIG GRASS (Malheur County), CROSSWHITE (Wheeler County), and Coleman Creek (Harney County), are each burning beyond a quarter-million acres at once; Oregon has passed two million acres statewide; and the fires that reached Spokane’s city limits, which destroyed 700+ structures and forced 67,000 evacuations, are now one front among dozens. The Northwest is enduring its worst fire season in roughly three decades, and the national system remains at Preparedness Level 5, its ceiling. 65% of SNOTEL stations. 1,012 of 1,570, recorded all-time low snowpack on April 1. 8 states set new record lows; AZ, CO, ID, NV, NM, OR, UT, WY all hit SNOTEL-era lows simultaneously. Snowpack has collapsed entirely across the corridor: all 11 western states reached 0.0" median SWE by the end of May, snow is functionally gone everywhere except trace amounts in Colorado. Melt-out arrived weeks ahead of schedule across the West, with many stations recording their earliest snow-free date on record. Oregon has 62 of 73 water supply forecast points at or near historic lows.

January through March was the driest on record for the continental United States. 60.9% of the Lower 48 is now in drought. As of August 18, 2026, the corridor has 217 active fires (4,762,673 ac). The largest active concern is Big Grass at 579,134 acres in Malheur County, OR, 82% contained. Nationally, 2.35 million acres have burned across 29,023 fires, well above of the ten-year average. 18 uncontained large fires are burning nationally, 50 of them in the Northwest geographic area alone. The national system is at Preparedness Level 2, its highest tier, with the Northwest also at PL5. AccuWeather forecasts 5.5–8 million acres for the full year.

El Niño is established. The weekly Niño 3.4 index reached +0.5°C in June and forecast probabilities are effectively 80% through fall, with roughly half of forecast models indicating a very strong event (≥+2.0°C) at the autumn peak. Water systems are already breaking: Lake Powell is forecast to receive only 13% of usual inflows and hydropower generation could halt by September; Lake Mead sits at 1054.89 ft, roughly 30% of capacity; Wyoming's North Platte runoff forecast is 17% of average. Suppression capacity entered the season degraded: only 11,300 firefighters are on board (vs 11,900 the prior year) after 4,200 departures through the paid leave program and 600 through early retirement. ~6,000 USFS employees were lost overall, 57 research facilities are closing, and the proposed FY2026 budget cuts staffing by 26%. More than 5,000 personnel are currently assigned to fire incidents and over 12,000 PurpleAir sensors monitor western air quality.